Expert Assessment of a Ratio of Expenses at Construction of Oil Transport Infrastructure in the Arctic

Authors

  • A.G. Tutygin Федеральный исследовательский центр комплексного изучения Арктики имени академика Н. П. Лаверова РАН , Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research named after Academician N. P. Laverov of Russian Academy of Sciences Автор
  • V.B. Korobov Федеральный исследовательский центр комплексного изучения Арктики имени академика Н. П. Лаверова РАН , Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research named after Academician N. P. Laverov of Russian Academy of Sciences , Институт океанологии им. П. П. Ширшова РАН , Institute of Oceanology named after P. P. Shirshov of Russian Academy of Sciences Автор
  • M.H. Gubaidullin Федеральный исследовательский центр комплексного изучения Арктики имени академика Н. П. Лаверова РАН , Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research named after Academician N. P. Laverov of Russian Academy of Sciences , Северный арктический федеральный университет им. М. В. Ломоносова , Northern Arctic Federal University named after M. V. Lomonosov Автор
  • L.A. Chizhova Федеральный исследовательский центр комплексного изучения Арктики имени академика Н. П. Лаверова РАН , Federal Center for Integrated Arctic Research named after Academician N. P. Laverov of Russian Academy of Sciences Автор

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.22394/1726-1139-2018-12-110-117

Keywords:

арктическая зона Российской Федерации, транспортная инфраструктура, задача выбора, управленческое решение, модель, природно-экологические факторы, экономические факторы, arctic zone of the Russian Federation, transport infrastructure, selection problem, management decision, model, natural and environmental factors, economic factors

Abstract

When assessing the cost of construction and operation of transport infrastructure in the early stages of the investment process, there is a problem in the formalization of some indicators of the factors influencing decision-making. The temporary impossibility to express them in monetary or comparable natural quantities leads to uncertainty in the ratio between these two groups of factors. On the example of one of the discussed objects of oil transport infrastructure in the territory of the Russian Arctic, quantitative estimates of such uncertainties are obtained, the value of which was very weighty and variable depending on the considered alternative. The authors propose an approach based on the vector representation of factors, fuzzy set theory and expert estimates, which allows developing a criterion of the limit value of uncertainty, allowing making management decisions in the problems of choice. The corresponding model giving the possibility of calculation of such criterion is constructed.

Published

2018-12-15

Issue

No. 12 (2018)

Section

Articles