INSTC: Geopolitical Challenges and Risks. Part 1

Abstract

To date, not enough generalizing studies have been published in Russia aimed at identifying obvious and hidden geopolitical risks to the INSTC project. The scientific community has not yet developed a general understanding of their actual and imaginary significance, acuteness, interrelationships and interdependence. This is not surprising since the country's leadership has only recently come to understand the strategic importance and geo-economic significance of INSTC. Since initially the main attention of the leading participants of the project - Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran - was focused on the “western branch line” of the INSTC, it was on this route that the foreign policy challenges from the United States and the EU, Turkey, India and China, as well as Pakistan, the republics of Central Asia and Armenia. At the same time, the main danger to the coordinated work of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Iran within the framework of the project comes from the United States and its NATO allies. Without hiding their hostility to the Russian Federation, Iran and China, they are making efforts to involve Azerbaijan and other former Soviet republics in their geopolitical game in the South Caucasus. Turkish “pan-Turkists” have a certain influence on Baku's behavior, seeking to shift its attention to the TITR project. In this case, they are impressed by the fact that it enjoys the support of the West. The geopolitical challenges and risks include the Azerbaijani Iranian and Azerbaijani-Indian contradictions, India's competition with China and Pakistan in Central Asia, and Armenia's claim to create a parallel to INSTC transport infrastructure. The article explains the background and scale of all these challenges and risks for Russia and the INSTC project, their thoroughness, imaginary and actual severity. According to the author, the main challenge (in fact, a threat) to the project today comes from the United States, which has intensified its participation in the reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan. In this regard, Washington's desire to oust the Russian Federation from Armenia and turn it into a state controlled by the West, as well as to conclude a deal with Turkey and Azerbaijan at the expense of Armenia by forcibly implementing the Zangezur transport corridor project, is alarming.