INSTC: Geopolitical Challenges and Risks (Part 2)

Abstract

To date, not enough generalizing studies have been published in Russia aimed at identifying the obvious and hidden external risks to the INSTC project, the strategic importance and geoeconomic significance of which is beyond doubt. Therefore, the purpose of the article is to form an adequate understanding of the actual and imaginary significance of these risks, their severity, interrelationships and interdependence. Based on a comprehensive analysis of an array of extensive information, the author concluded that the leading project participants - Russia, Azerbaijan and Iran - initially paid increased attention to the western branch of the INSTC. At the same time, it was found that this project was the focus of the most acute challenges from the United States and the EU, Turkey, India and China, the republics of Central Asia, Armenia and Pakistan. At the same time, it is emphasized that the main danger to the coordinated work of the Russian Federation, Azerbaijan and Iran within the framework of the project comes from the United States and its NATO allies. Without hiding their hostility to Russia, Iran and China, they are making efforts to involve Azerbaijan and other former Soviet republics in their geopolitical game in the South Caucasus. A certain influence on Baku's behavior has also been established on the part of the "pan-Turkist" movement, which is concerned about Azerbaijan's shift of attention to the TITR project. The Pan-Turkists are impressed by the fact that TITR enjoys the support of the West. The author also refers to the Azerbaijani Iranian and Azerbaijani Indian contradictions, India's competition with China and Pakistan in Central Asia, and Armenia's claim to create a parallel transport infrastructure to the World Trade Center. The article explains the background and scale of all these challenges and risks for Russia and the INSTC project, their thoroughness and severity. According to the author, the main challenge (in fact, a threat) to the project today comes from the United States, which has stepped up its participation in the reconciliation of Baku and Yerevan. In this regard, he urges to monitor Washington's desire to oust the Russian Federation from Armenia and turn it into a state controlled by the West. Attention is also drawn to the dangerous prospect for the Russian Federation of concluding a deal between Turkey and Azerbaijan at the expense of Armenia in the direction of compulsory implementation of the he Zangezur transport corridor project.