The Method of Scenario Planning in the Selection of Technological Project Initiatives

Abstract

Introduction. Modern global political and economic events create a need for the formation of new models and schemes for the creation and capitalization of technological innovations. The importance to get the result in the fastest and least painful way and increasing controllability of technological changes is increasing. Analytical tools for assessing project feasibility require clarification. Earlier studies of the issue of riskiness of digital projects, as a rule, concerned the identification of either individual risks or groups, types of risks and assessment of their impact on the project; the issue of assessing the mutual influence of different risk factors in the context of long-term consumption of the project product has not been sufficiently studied.Objectives. The article tries to formulate the concept of risk-based scenario planning, which involves the assessment of project alternatives considering the influence of polar values of factors identified for a specific project. 5 main factors and global threats to the new normal have been identified: social distancing, digital inequality, polarization of the labor market, regulatory requirements, and ecosystem factors; analysis of the relationship between factors determined the cause-and-effect relationships between them.Methods. For the purposes of the study, the method of scenario planning (contrasting scenarios) was used.Results. Our research concludes that to make decisions about launching an investment technological project, it is necessary to create from 4 to 10 contrasting scenarios, providing for high and low values of the selected factors.Conclusions. It is advisable to create a knowledge bank of the corporation on digital projects of technological entrepreneurship, which is designed by developing classifiers of industrial investment projects and generating standard lists of factor values using ontological models of the subject area. Bank updating should be carried out in accordance with the average life cycle of digital technologies. The results of the study are designed to increase the feasibility of technological project initiatives and can be used by corporations when analyzing and selecting innovative digital projects.