Students From CIS Countries - An (Un)Exhaustible Resource For St. Petersburg Universities

Abstract

The relevance of the topic is determined by the growing importance of soft power in international relations. One of its instruments is the export of education. An analysis of statistics from Russian universities for 2018-2024 shows that despite the overall growth in the number of students from abroad, the proportion of students from CIS countries is declining. Although they are considered the main source of foreign educational migrants. The same trends are observed in St. Petersburg universities. The aim of the study is to analyse the prospects for educational migration to St. Petersburg universities of young people from six republics of the former USSR (Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan), which are currently actively participating in the activities of the Commonwealth of Independent States.The theoretical basis is H. Esser's new economic theory of migration. The empirical basis consists of an analysis of the 35 most cited and relevant articles containing the results of empirical studies published in the Russian Science Citation Index (RSCI) in 2027-2025 and materials from an online survey of 298 students from 24 St. Petersburg universities from 53 countries. Students from six CIS countries account for 32.5%. The survey was conducted in May-June 2025. To determine the prospects for educational migration, we used a qualitative scenario forecasting method. Main results. In scientific literature, nine factors are most often mentioned as attractive factors for studying in Russia, with the most frequently mentioned being proficiency in the Russian language. According to the results of an online survey, the importance of socio-cultural factors for students from CIS countries was not so high; economic factors and a higher quality of life in Russia were more important. The leading role of the opinion of the immediate environment in choosing a city for study and a specific university was noted. The forecast hypotheses were based on factors identified in the literature: economic, logistical, socio-cultural and quality of education (recognition of diplomas), and the factor of the opinion of the immediate environment, identified within the framework of the new economic theory of migration. The negative scenario assumes a critical reduction in the flow of students from six CIS countries, while the positive scenario assumes stable growth. The main recommendations relate to the use of the city's tourism potential in recruiting foreign students to St. Petersburg universities, increasing the activity of universities on social networks in foreign countries, and using university graduates to promote Russian and St Petersburg education in their countries.