Scenario Approach to Forecasting of the System of Higher Professional Education for Educational Institutions of Public Administration

Authors

  • Vladimir Nikolaevich Naumov Северо-Западная академия государственной службы , North-West Academy of Public Administration Автор
  • Darima Damdinovna Ulzetueva Северо-Западная академия государственной службы , North-West Academy of Public Administration Автор

Keywords:

forecasting, method of scenarios, hierarchy of criteria, the eigenvector method of analysis of hierarchies

Abstract

This article describes a scenario approach to the short-and medium-term forecasting system of higher education. As an analogue was chosen the model proposed by T. A. Saaty in the 1980's for forecasting the state of the system of higher education in the United States. Specificity of given approach is provided by the content of formulated scenarios, choice of variables and the magnitude of their values.

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References

Саати Т., Кернс К. Аналитическое планирование. Организация систем. М.: Радио и связь, 1991.

Саати Т. Л. Принятие решений при зависимостях и обратных связях: Аналитические сети. М.: Изд-во ЛКИ, 2008.

Цыгичко В. М. Прогнозирование социально-экономических процессов. М.: Книжный дом «Либроком», 2009.

Фокина В. В. Проблемы управления качеством образовательных услуг в Российской высшей школе // Управленческое консультирование. 2010. № 4. С. 197-205

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Published

2011-03-15

Issue

No. 2 (2011)

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Naumov V.N., Ulzetueva D.D. Scenario Approach to Forecasting of the System of Higher Professional Education for Educational Institutions of Public Administration // Administrative Consulting. 2011. no. 2. P. 18–33.